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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-09-02 04:36:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020236 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 The terrain of the Baja California peninsula has taken a toll on Lidia. The cloud pattern has become disorganized, and deep convection has decreased with only a few strong patches remaining near the center. Based on tonight's satellite intensity estimates and continuity, the initial intensity is generously set at 45 kt. It appears that the strongest winds are occurring in the eastern half of the circulation and mainly over the Sea of Cortes. The interaction with land and cold waters will result in additional weakening, and Lidia is forecast to be a remnant low in about 24 to 36 hours or even sooner. Lidia has continued on a steady motion toward northwest or 320 degrees at 10 kt. The flow pattern resulting from a high over Mexico and a large low to the west will continue to steer Lidia northwestward for a day or two. Thereafter, Lidia is expected to be a shallow cyclone steered by the low-level easterly flow. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to the multi-model consensus. Despite weakening, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. Moisture from the cyclone could reach the southwestern United States over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 26.4N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 27.6N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/0000Z 29.0N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 03/1200Z 30.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0000Z 31.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 33.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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