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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-08-31 22:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 312032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017 Satellite imagery indicates that Lidia continues to become better organized, with convective bands now wrapping most of the way around a ragged clear-air center. Recent surface observations from the Cabo San Lucas area support increasing the initial intensity to 55 kt, although it is unclear how much terrain enhancement of these winds is occurring. The initial motion is north-northwestward or 335/7 kt between a mid-level anticyclone centered over central Mexico and a mid- to upper-level low located to the west over the Pacific. This motion should continue for the next 24 h or so. After that time, a mid-level anticyclone over the southwestern United States should become the main steering influence from 48-120 h, forcing Lidia to turn northwestward and eventually westward. The guidance has become somewhat less tightly spread, as the GFS is currently a right outlier showing a motion into the northern Gulf of California. Given the lack of support for this scenario from the other models, the new forecast track is similar to the previous track and a little south of the consensus models Additional strengthening is possible this evening before the center moves over the Baja California peninsula, and while the chance of Lidia becoming a hurricane is low it is still non-zero. Weakening is expected after 12 h due to the center moving up the spine of the Baja California peninsula, but tropical-storm-force winds are likely to spread up the Gulf of California well east of the center. Lidia is forecast to become a remnant low by 72 h due to interaction with land and cold water, and further weakening is anticipated over the cold waters west of the northern Baja California peninsula at 96 and 102 h. Lidia is a large system accompanied by very heavy rains which are already occurring over portions of western Mexico and Baja California Sur. Regardless of how strong Lidia becomes, life-threatening flash floods and mudslides will be a significant hazard over these areas. In addition, the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula could enhance the winds at higher elevations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 22.7N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 23.8N 110.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 25.2N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/0600Z 26.8N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/1800Z 28.2N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 03/1800Z 30.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1800Z 30.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1800Z 30.5N 123.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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