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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-09-19 16:49:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 191449 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 105.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 40SE 70SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 105.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 10NE 20SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.2N 109.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.8N 112.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.8N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.8N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 105.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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