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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-09-19 22:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 192037 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 The center and structure of Lorena was extremely difficult to determine this morning after the core of the tropical cyclone interacted with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. The aircraft that was scheduled to investigate Lorena had mechanical issues and was unable to complete its mission. Thankfully, a fortuitous GMI microwave overpass around 1800 UTC and more recent ASCAT data has provided some clarity on the location and structure of the cyclone. According to that data, the center is located just southwest of the Islas Marias, and the ASCAT revealed peak winds of 45-50 kt. Given the typical undersampling of the ASCAT for in small tropical cyclones, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt, which is between the peak scatterometer winds and the higher satellite estimates. Since the microwave data suggests that the inner core appears to be somewhat intact, some strengthening is expected while the cyclone moves over warm water and remains in a low shear environment during the next 24 hours or so. As a result, Lorena is forecast to be a hurricane when it pass near or over the southern Baja peninsula. After that time, interaction with land is likely to cause some decrease in wind speed. Lorena has been moving faster than expected, and the initial motion estimate is 315/11 kt. The cyclone should turn west-northwestward tonight as it moves between a mid-level ridge to its northeast and Tropical Storm Mario to the southwest. If Lorena remains separated from Mario (as shown by the latest ECMWF), a turn back toward the northwest is expected as the storm moves around the southwestern portion of the ridge. The new NHC track forecast lies between the HFIP corrected consensus model and the latest ECMWF. Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the exact track and intensity of Lorena, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue along a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this evening. 3. Lorena is forecast to re-strengthen into a hurricane and bring hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula beginning on Friday. A Hurricane Warning has been issued, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 21.6N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 22.4N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 22.8N 109.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 23.5N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 24.4N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 27.0N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 29.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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