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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-09-20 10:44:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 933 WTPZ45 KNHC 200844 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A series of METOP-B microwave composite images reveal an improved inner core this morning with a distinct banding eye feature and developing outer bands in the east portion of the cyclone. Lorena is close to hurricane strength, and the initial intensity of 60 kt is a compromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, and a SATCON analysis of 57 kt. Lorena is expected to re-gain hurricane strength very soon as it passes near or over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some further intensification is forecast before the cyclone traverses much cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures beyond the 36-hour period. Lorena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 days, however, the chances of the cyclone interacting and becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in 48 hours or so have increased significantly. Regardless of the possible interaction scenario, dissipation of Lorena will occur in less than 4 days. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/8 kt. The cyclone is currently situated between a mid- to upper-level tropospheric ridge over northern Mexico and larger Tropical Storm Mario to the southwest, while a high amplitude shortwave trough, northwest of Lorena, approaches the west coast of the United States. The global and regional guidance has become more aligned with the interaction with Mario in a couple of days, and has shifted considerably toward the west away from the Baja California peninsula. Subsequently, a major shift of the official forecast has been made to the left of the previous forecast, but the NHC track still lies well to the east of the various multi-model consensus models. At this point, only the legacy GFS global model fails to show binary interaction with Mario. Wind radii adjustments were made based on 0334 UTC scatterometer data. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding possible. 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 22.3N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 22.7N 110.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 23.1N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 24.1N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 26.4N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED BY MARIO $$ Forecaster Roberts
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