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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 18
2019-09-21 22:46:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 212046 CCA TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 18...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Corrected to add status of remnant low at 36 hours The inner core of Lorena did not survive its path across the high terrain of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigated the cyclone and found that Lorena has weakened significantly. The central pressure rose to 1002 mb, and the peak winds are only 45 kt. These winds are confined to a small area to the north and east of the center. The cloud pattern has also deteriorated significantly since yesterday. Although the ocean is quite warm in the Gulf of California, the shear is rapidly increasing, and this factor should continue to weaken the already battered storm. However, the NHC forecast calls for Lorena to reach the coast of northwestern Mexico within the tropical storm warning area in about 18 hours or so as a tropical storm. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, but heavy rains should continue for another day or so. Lorena is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt, steered by the flow around the western periphery of a subtropical high. This flow pattern will persist, and Lorena is anticipated to continue on this general track for the next day or two until dissipation over the Sonoran Desert. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible, this weekend in parts of northwestern mainland Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and early next week. 2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 26.7N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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