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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-09-22 04:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220236 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Recent SSMI/S and WindSat microwave overpasses helped locate the center of Lorena, which was hidden under a band of cirrus clouds, over the Gulf of California southwest of Guymas. The system was devoid of convection for several hours. However, a new burst of convection has recently formed just northeast of the center. There is little data near the central core, so the initial intensity is set at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. Lorena should make landfall over northwestern Mexico during the next several hours, then rapidly weaken over the mountainous terrain and dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning. The microwave data indicate that Lorena is continuing to move just west of due north or 355/10 kt. A general northward or perhaps north-northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone dissipates, and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous advisory track. Key Messages: 1. Lorena may produce dangerous flash flooding in Sonora Saturday night and Sunday. Moisture associated with Lorena may also result in locally heavy rain over parts of Arizona early in the week. There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over central Arizona on Monday. 2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the tropical storm warning area during the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 27.6N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0000Z 30.9N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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