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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 10
2019-09-19 22:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 192036 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ISLAS MARIAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 107.0W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe. The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of La Paz to San Evaristo, and along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of Santa Fe to Puerto Cortes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Fe to Puerto Cortes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 107.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed should continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula tonight, pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday, and move along the west coast of the peninsula Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. A Mexican navy automated station on Isla Maria Madre island recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (73 km/h) and a wind gust of 65 mph (105 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico through this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula on Friday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend: Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts around 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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