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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 11
2019-09-20 04:40:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 200240 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...LORENA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 107.7W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the west coast of Baja California del Sur north of Santa Fe to Puerto Cortes. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the east coast of Baja California del Sur north of San Evaristo to Loreto, and for the west coast of Baja California del Sur north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito. The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Punta Mita. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of this area on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 107.7 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight, and this motion should continue through Friday night. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula tonight, pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday, and move along the west coast of the peninsula Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength as it approaches the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula on Friday, with tropical storm conditions beginning by Friday morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend: Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts around 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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