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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 6
2019-09-18 22:48:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 182048 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...CENTER OF LORENA TO PASS VERY CLOSE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.. ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 104.4W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Baja California del Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula this evening or overnight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 104.4 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast tonight, and Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane as it nears the southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional strengthening is possible when Lorena moves west of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area as early as this evening, and then will spread northwestward tonight and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions will first reach the coast within the hurricane warning area within the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area in the next few hours, and will spread northward along the coast through Thursday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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