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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 9
2019-09-19 16:50:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 191449 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...CENTER OF LORENA MOVES OFFSHORE JUST WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES... ...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 105.9W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos Santos. The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Punta Mita * Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos Santos A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion at a slow forward speed should continue Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula today and tonight, and then pass near or or just south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Friday within the tropical storm warning area in Baja California Sur. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southern Baja California peninsula within the watch area as early as Friday night or Saturday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend: Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts around 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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