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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-09-19 22:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 192036 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) X(17) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 23(29) 2(31) X(31) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 78(82) 10(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 40(40) 15(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 16(16) 7(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 62(64) 11(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) SAN JOSE CABO 50 1 30(31) 9(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X 8( 8) 23(31) 2(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLAS MARIAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 16(24) 1(25) X(25) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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