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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-09-15 22:44:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152044 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 AMBIGUITIES FROM A 1618 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF MANUEL MADE LANDFALL NEAR MANZANILLO EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE PASS ALSO INDICATED THAT WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE ARE NO HIGHER THAN 35 KT. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE THAT TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS CONSERVATIVELY BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT...SINCE STRONGER WINDS MAY STILL BE PRESENT IN BANDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. IN FACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF MANUEL WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/08. MANUEL CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BEYOND 24 HOURS AND SOME MODELS...NOTABLY THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF...SHOW A TRACK TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS BEING DISCOUNTED FOR NOW SINCE THE VORTEX TRACKER APPLIED TO THESE MODELS SEEMS TO FOLLOW ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHILE MANUEL DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 19.2N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 20.3N 105.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/1800Z 21.4N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY
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