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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 18
2013-09-18 22:47:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 182047 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE LASTEST MICROWAVE IMAGES. A RAGGED EYE HAS ALSO RECENTLY APPEARED IN VISIBLE STATELLITE PICTURES. THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 3.4 FROM UW/CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT...A LITTLE ABOVE THESE ESTIMATES...BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER... MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH LAND WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING. SINCE THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL NEARING THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS A HURRICANE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE GFS SHOWS LANDFALL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE HWRF IS FASTER TO THE COAST. THE ECMWF TAKES MANUEL TO THE COAST BEFORE IT TURNS WESTWARD. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL TURNING WESTWARD AT THE COAST...OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MODELS THAT KEEP THE CYCLONE MEANDERING OFFSHORE. MODEL TRENDS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFTS ARE LIKELY. BECAUSE OF THE ANGLE OF APPROACH OF MANUEL TO THE COASTLINE OF MAINLAND MEXICO...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND WHEN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE COAST. RESIDENTS WITHIN THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 23.9N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 24.5N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 25.0N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 25.3N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 20/1800Z 25.4N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 21/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 96H 22/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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