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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-09-14 16:50:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141449 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 MANUEL CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTION ON THE UPSWING. A CURVED BAND IS NOW WRAPPING MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER...WITH AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMING. WHILE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...THE DUSSELDORF EXPRESS REPORTED A PRESSURE OF ABOUT 997 MB WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF MANUEL OF 994 MB OR SO. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT...A BIT ABOVE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND NEAR THE KNAFF-ZEHR-COURTNEY WIND-PRESSURE RELATIONSHIP. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND MANUEL COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE 50 KT SHOWN BELOW BEFORE LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE ON SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. THE STORM IS FINALLY MOVING NORTHWARD...ABOUT 355/5. MANUEL SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST PATH...AND THE LATEST NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.2N 102.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.0N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.3N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z 19.5N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1200Z 20.5N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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