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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-09-15 04:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150241 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN ELONGATED CDO FEATURE HAS FORMED AND CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND WELL-DEFINED 15 NMI DIAMETER EYE. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND A 14/2215Z CIRA AMSU OVERPASS...AND T3.5 FROM SAB. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA AND THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT...WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THAT MANUEL LOOKS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR IN STRUCTURE TO HURRICANE INGRID LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/05 KT...BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES. MANUEL APPEARS TO HAVE WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...BUT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT MANUEL HAS BEEN HOLDING A STEADY NORTHWARD COURSE FOR THE PAST 5 HOURS. THAT GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...FORCING MANUEL TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT OTHERWISE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND MANUEL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS...VERY WARM WATER...MOIST MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED EYE. AS A RESULT...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND...HOWEVER...RAPID WEAKENING OF THE WIND FIELD SHOULD OCCUR OWING TO THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE SO DISRUPTED THAT REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE 34-KT WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST BASED ON SHIP REPORTS IN THOSE QUADRANTS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.2N 102.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 18.1N 102.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 19.4N 103.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/1200Z 20.6N 104.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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