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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-09-15 10:41:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150841 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 MANUEL APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY. IN FACT...THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS LAST EVENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB...WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE EAST LAST EVENING...MANUEL HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 335/7 KT...TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SOON...AND THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AFTER LANDFALL... KEEPING THE CENTER OF MANUEL OVER LAND UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO. SINCE THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS LIKELY TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IS QUICKLY DWINDLING. NONETHELESS...THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT IS CERTAIN THAT THE CENTER HAS REACHED LAND. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS...BUT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. REGENERATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. ASCAT DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WIND FIELD OF MANUEL HAS DETACHED FROM THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO ISOLATE THE STORM-SCALE CIRCULATION AND WAVE FIELD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 17.9N 102.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 18.9N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/0600Z 19.9N 104.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/1800Z 20.6N 105.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
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