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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 18
2013-09-18 22:47:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 182047 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 ...MANUEL QUICKLY NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICIO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 108.1W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL WILL APPROACH THE WEST- CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHEN IS FORECAST AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT... AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. MANUEL IS ALSO FORECAST TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF NAYARIT AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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