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Tropical Storm MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2013-09-18 19:43:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1800 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 181743 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1800 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 12 19 31 34 NA TROP DEPRESSION 6 14 25 26 36 31 NA TROPICAL STORM 84 64 50 48 32 34 NA HURRICANE 10 19 14 7 2 2 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 10 18 12 7 1 2 NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 60KT 50KT 40KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 5 7(12) 3(15) 3(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 34 8 9(17) 4(21) 3(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 5 12(17) 6(23) 5(28) 5(33) 1(34) X(34) LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 6(14) 4(18) 2(20) X(20) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) HUATABAMPO 34 2 8(10) 7(17) 7(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 7 23(30) 12(42) 6(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) LOS MOCHIS 50 X 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) LOS MOCHIS 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 27 30(57) 6(63) 1(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) CULIACAN 50 2 18(20) 6(26) 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) CULIACAN 64 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 11 5(16) 2(18) 2(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) SAN BLAS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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