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Tropical Storm MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2013-09-18 22:47:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 182047 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 10 18 37 50 NA TROP DEPRESSION 1 10 21 26 40 36 NA TROPICAL STORM 30 44 45 46 23 14 NA HURRICANE 69 44 24 11 1 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 65 36 19 9 1 X NA HUR CAT 2 5 7 4 1 X X NA HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 75KT 70KT 55KT 35KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) LA PAZ 34 1 6( 7) 8(15) 5(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) HUATABAMPO 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) 6(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) HUATABAMPO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LOS MOCHIS 34 6 39(45) 8(53) 3(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) LOS MOCHIS 50 X 10(10) 8(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) LOS MOCHIS 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 55 21(76) 2(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) CULIACAN 50 10 23(33) 4(37) X(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) CULIACAN 64 3 13(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MAZATLAN 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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