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Tropical Storm MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2013-09-14 16:47:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 141447 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 12 21 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 4 13 38 33 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 91 76 45 40 NA NA NA HURRICANE 5 10 5 6 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 5 9 4 6 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 35KT 30KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 13(15) 12(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 2 20(22) 13(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 49 23(72) 1(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) L CARDENAS 50 4 12(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) L CARDENAS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 36 9(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ZIHUATANEJO 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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