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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-08-22 10:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220834 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 ASCAT passes at 0338 UTC and 0430 UTC indicated that the cyclone was producing winds of 35 kt in a small area to the north of the center. Since that time, the convective pattern has become significantly better organized, and it is estimated that the system is now a 40-kt tropical storm. Earlier microwave data indicated that Marie has a well-defined low-level ring, which can often be a precursor to rapid intensification if environmental conditions are favorable. With waters near 30 degrees Celsius, high levels of atmospheric moisture, and favorable upper-level diffluence, it appears that RI is a definite possibility, and Marie could become a hurricane in about 24 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for strengthening for much of the forecast period, and in fact, the global models indicate significant deepening of the cyclone through about day 4 before Marie reaches cooler waters. The statistical-dynamical models are also incredibly aggressive, with the SHIPS model making Marie a category 4 hurricane in 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is roughly between the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are the highest of the guidance. This is higher than the previous forecast, and it now explicitly shows Marie becoming a major hurricane later in the forecast period. Marie's initial motion is 290/16 kt. A mid-level high is centered near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast with a ridge extending westward into northern Mexico. The ridge is expected to build westward over the Pacific waters during the next few days, and this pattern should keep Marie on a west-northwestward motion for much of the forecast period. The model guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast was only shifted slightly westward on this advisory to follow the overall model trend. It should be noted that the global models show Marie becoming a large cyclone in a few days. The forecast wind radii have been expanded, but additional increases may be required in future advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 12.8N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 13.2N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 14.0N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 15.4N 108.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 21.5N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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