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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 26
2014-08-28 10:31:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280831 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014 Deep convection near Marie has significantly decreased in the past few hours, with the low-level center becoming partially exposed on the north side of the old central dense overcast. The initial wind speed is reduced to 45 kt, on the higher side of the latest satellite classifications. Since Marie is now over sub-23C waters, it is no longer expected to produce organized deep convection and should become post-tropical in about 12 hours. The large circulation will take some time to spin down even without convection, so the NHC intensity forecast shows only a gradual decay, similar to the global models and the intensity consensus. Marie is moving to the northwest or 305/14 kt. This general motion is expected for the next day or so while the cyclone remains under the influence of a mid-level high near the coast of southern California. Marie or its remnants are forecast to slow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of the forecast period when it is steered by the lower-level flow. Model guidance has nudged a bit to the west in the first 48 hours, so the NHC track forecast is adjusted in that direction. Beyond day 3, the updated NHC track prediction, similar to the previous forecast, is a little bit farther north. Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 24.4N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 25.6N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 29/0600Z 27.4N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1800Z 28.9N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 30.0N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 30.7N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z 30.5N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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