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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-08-22 16:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 221432 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Marie continues to become better organized, with abundant deep convection and banding features in all quadrants. Additionally, water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level outflow is becoming increasingly well defined. The current intensity estimate is set at 45 kt in general agreement with objective Dvorak estimates from UW/CIMSS. Since the tropical cyclone will be moving through an environment of low shear and very warm waters for the next several days, continued strengthening seems inevitable. Marie should become a hurricane within 24 hours and will likely attain at least Category 3 status during the forecast period. This is suggested even by the global models such as the GFS, which predicts that Marie will deepen below 950 mb in a few days. The official wind speed forecast, which could be conservative, is based on a blend of the objective intensity guidance. The storm is moving west-northwestward or 290/15 kt. The steering/track forecast scenario appears to be straightforward at this time. Over the next several days, Marie should move along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge that will be building westward from northern Mexico. The dynamical track forecast models are tightly clustered, and the official forecast is very close to the model consensus. This is essentially an update of the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 13.1N 102.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 13.6N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 14.4N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 15.9N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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