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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 52
2017-09-29 04:43:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290243 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 The satellite presentation of Maria has degraded over the past 12 hours or so, with the area of deep convection decreasing in coverage and becoming displaced to the east of the center due to some westerly shear. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, while the UW-CIMSS ADT is 50-55 kt. Based on the latter, the initial wind speed is maintained at 55 kt for this advisory. Maria is beginning to accelerate eastward, with an initial motion estimate of 080/15 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to turn east-northeastward on Friday ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough. Maria should continue to accelerate east-northeastward to northeast over the north Atlantic on Saturday before it is absorbed by a frontal boundary over the northeastern Atlantic. The track guidance continues to be tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. Maria is forecast to change little in intensity over the next day or so while it moves over marginal SSTs and remains in low to moderate shear conditions. After that time, baroclinic forcing and the rapid forward speed of the cyclone should again help Maria maintain its intensity until it completes extratropical transition in about 48 hours. The global models indicate that the extratropical low will weaken over the northeastern Atlantic by day 72 h, and be absorbed by a frontal system by day 4. The post-tropical intensity and wind radii forecasts at 48 and 72 h are based on guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 37.1N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 37.5N 61.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 39.1N 55.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 41.5N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 44.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0000Z 50.0N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brown
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