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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 27
2020-10-05 22:46:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 052046 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Deep convection associated with Maria has all but dissipated and what is left of it has been located over 120 n mi from the exposed low-level center of the cyclone since around 1400 UTC this morning. A recent ASCAT overpass shows the maximum winds have decreased to 43 kt as of 1800 UTC, and assuming weakening has continued since that time, 40 kt will be the initial advisory intensity. There are no reasons to believe that the deep convection will redevelop near the center of Marie, as the cyclone is forecast to remain in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind shear, SSTs cooler than 25 degrees C, and a surrounding dry and stable airmass. Therefore, Maria is expected to be declared a remnant low by tonight. The remnant low should gradually spin down and open into a trough by late this week. Marie continues to move west-northwestward at about 8 kt around a mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west-southwest is expected in a couple of days as low- mid-level ridging builds to the northwest of what's left of the cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various track consensus forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.4N 132.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 23.4N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z 23.3N 138.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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