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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 30
2020-10-06 16:43:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 061443 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Marie continues to gradually spin down this morning, and the impressive burst of convection that developed near the surface center last night, now consists of a shrinking cloud mass with significantly warming cloud tops. Assuming some weakening since the last night's METOP-A and B scatterometer passes indicating peak winds of 40 kt, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt which is also supported by a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Marie is moving over cool oceanic sea surface temperatures and through a high statically stable air mass. The persistent, harsh vertical shear environment has displaced what remains of the cyclone's associated deep convection well to the northeast of the center. The Statistical-dynamical intensity guidance and the large-scale models are in general agreement with Marie degenerating into a trough of low pressure in 3 days, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. The initial motion estimate is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The cyclone should continue moving toward the west-northwest through Wednesday evening. Through the remaining portion of the period, the post-tropical remnant low should continue to gradually spin down while moving westward within the low-level easterlies and open up into a trough of low pressure by Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 22.1N 135.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 23.2N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 23.2N 138.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0000Z 23.2N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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