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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 31
2020-10-06 22:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 062036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Marie's center remains exposed, with limited shower activity displaced more than 110 n mi northeast of the center. Consequently, the system is poised to become a remnant low tonight if organized convection doesn't redevelop near the center of circulation. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, and is in best agreement with a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and in deference to this morning's scatterometer data which indicated numerous 40-kt winds. Marie should continue to gradually spin down during the 36 hours while moving west-northwestward over 24C sea surface temperatures and through an extremely inhibiting surrounding environment. Through the remaining portion of the period, the post-tropical remnant low should turn westward within the low-level easterlies and open up into a trough of low pressure Friday. Only a small along-track adjustment was made to the NHC forecast in order to agree more with the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 22.8N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0600Z 23.4N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z 23.4N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0600Z 23.4N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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