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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-09-19 22:53:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 192053 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 It's become clear since the issuance of the last advisory that the low level center of Mario is displaced well east of its convection. In fact, a good portion of the center has been exposed this afternoon. The intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of the most recent Dvorak Final-T and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB. A significant change to the track forecast was required based on the adjusted initial position of Mario, and the cyclone is now forecast to move much farther east during the next couple of days. The track models are still in extremely poor agreement on how much Mario and Lorena will interact over the next 2 days, and this is further complicated by the fact that Lorena will move over or very near the Baja California peninsula during that time. The NHC forecast still carries Mario as an independent system through 5 days, but confidence in the forecast remains low. For better or worse, the NHC forecast is close to TVCE at most of the forecast period, but is now just east of the consensus for the first 24 h, given current trends. Merger or not, shear from Lorena will likely affect Mario for the next couple of days. As long as Lorena continues to produce substantial convection, this shear should prevent Mario of significantly strengthening, though small short-term fluctuations are still possible. By the end of the forecast period, Mario is forecast to reach cooler waters and encounter dry air, and will likely become post-tropical. The new official intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus IVCN throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.1N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.0N 109.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.3N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 22.9N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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