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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-09-20 10:38:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200838 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Recent microwave imagery and ASCAT data indicate that Mario's center is located a little to the southwest of previous estimates, near a bursting area of deep convection with cloud top temperatures colder than -80C. The initial intensity estimate remains 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The UW-CIMSS analysis shows shear currently around 5 kt, but the SHIPS analysis is higher, showing 15 kt. Given the cloud pattern and a banding eye feature seen in a partial GMI overpass around 0740Z, the shear looks on the lower side of that range. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show some strengthening in the short term. After that time the shear increases and the cyclone will be moving into a drier and more stable environment with decreasing SSTs. These factors should result in gradual weakening, with remnant low status expected by day 4. The new NHC intensity forecast is at or above the highest guidance through 24 hours and then is a little above the consensus aids but below the higher SHIPS and LGEM forecasts. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 030/4, as Mario appears to have slowed and turned more poleward during the past few hours. The latest global models have trended toward more interaction between Mario and Lorena this cycle. The GFS and UKMET show a merger of the two systems within 24 hours. Alternatively, the ECMWF shows a weakening Mario absorbing Lorena after 48 hours near the west coast of the Baja California peninsula with a track well east of the rest of the guidance. The NHC forecast keeps the systems separate for now, with Lorena shown as dissipated in 96 hours. However, a merger is possible by 48 hours. The new NHC track shows Mario turning northward and then northwestward within 24 hours as a mid-level ridge builds over northern Mexico. Late in the period, a weakening Mario is expected to turn westward and then west-southwestward under the influence of a large low-level ridge over the north Pacific. The new NHC track is to the right of the TVCE consensus, but is actually bit to the left of the previous NHC track given the initial position and motion of the system during the past few hours. Given the uncertainty in the degree of interaction with Lorena, confidence is low in the details of the track forecast even within the first 48 hours, and additional adjustments may be needed later today. Data from the above-mentioned ASCAT pass were used to adjust the initial 34-kt wind radii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 17.6N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 18.4N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 19.5N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 20.7N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 21.6N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 24.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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