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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-09-21 10:59:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 210859 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Mario has become quite disorganized tonight. Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the low-level center is now located well to the east of the main area of deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 25 kt of east-northeasterly shear as shown by the SHIPS model. The initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt, using a blend of the Dvorak final T and CI numbers, and this could be generous given its current appearance. Although the strong shear currently affecting Mario is expected to lessen during the next couple of days, the cyclone will be moving into a drier airmass and over decreasing SSTs. Therefore, steady weakening seems likely, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous one. This prediction is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Mario is expected to become a remnant low in 2 or 3 days when it will be over SSTs of about 24 C, and dissipate by day 4 over very cool waters offshore of the Baja California peninsula. The tropical storm is moving northward, or 350 degrees, at 4 kt. The increasingly shallow system is expected to move northwestward to north-northwestward, following Lorena, with the low-level flow. The track models are in fair agreement, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 18.9N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 20.8N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 22.3N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 23.7N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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