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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 17
2019-09-21 16:47:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 211447 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Geostationary satellite imagery shows the low-level center of Mario is exposed to the northeast of the main convective mass, which is the result of strong northeasterly shear. An average of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates, and UW-CIMSS SATCON yields an initial wind speed of 45 kt. Hopefully, ASCAT data will provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity later today. The vertical shear over Mario is forecast to remain moderate to strong during the next 24 hours while Mario heads toward cooler waters. This should result in gradual weakening. After that time, the shear is forecast to decrease but the system will be moving into a more stable air mass and reach the 26C isotherm by 48 hours. Continued weakening is forecast and Mario is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days. Mario is progressing slowly north-northwestward, or 330 degrees at 4 kt. The dynamical model guidance is in relatively good agreement on a northwesterly track around the western side of a mid-level ridge. As Mario weakens, it should turn northward and slow down with the low-level steering flow. The latest consensus aids were a little west of the previous track, so the latest official forecast has been nudged in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 18.9N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 21.1N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 22.4N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 23.6N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 25.2N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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