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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-09-17 22:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 172038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Thunderstorm activity continues to grow over the center of the cyclone, with a banding feature trying to form in the western semicircle. While the subjective estimates are unchanged from earlier, the objective estimates are rising, which matches the increased convective organization trend on satellites. Thus the initial wind speed is bumped up to 35 kt on this advisory. Mario is moving northwestward, with that general motion anticipated for the next two days due primarily to a mid-latitude ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. A slow west-northwest track is forecast at long-range due to the orientation of the weakening ridge. Global models have come into much better agreement overall, and the new NHC track forecast is shifted to the west during the next few days since the models suggest little-to-no interaction with Tropical Storm Lorena. With the guidance showing less interaction with Lorena, it seems probable that further strengthening will occur in a low-shear, warm-water environment. Interestingly, the guidance is actually lower than this morning, although it is difficult to pinpoint any reasons for the change. I've elected to let the morning forecast ride for one more advisory to see if the guidance comes back upward, and the latest wind speed prediction is at the upper end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 12.3N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 16.8N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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