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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-18 04:46:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180246 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Mario's center was partially exposed after the release of the previous advisory, but it is now covered by a new convective burst. The convection itself remains somewhat lopsided, favoring the southwestern quadrant due to strong upper-level easterly winds emanating away from the larger Tropical Storm Lorena to the east. Since subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 30-40 kt, the initial intensity remains 35 kt on this advisory. The initial motion remains northwestward, or 325/8 kt. A mid-level ridge over Mexico should keep the cyclone on its northwestward trajectory for the next 2 days, but since the ridge retreats eastward a bit, Mario's forward motion is expected to decrease significantly during that time. By day 3, Mario and Lorena may get close enough to one another to cause Mario to almost stall. After day 3, Mario's track will mostly depend on Lorena's future, and there is significant model spread on days 4 and 5. The GFS has a stronger Lorena moving up near the Baja California peninsula, which pulls Mario farther toward the north and east. The ECMWF, on the other hand, dissipates Lorena near west-central Mexico, which allows Mario continue on a northwestward heading. For now, the official forecast splits the difference and closely follows the multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA model. Easterly to northeasterly shear is likely to continue over Mario during the next day or two, so only gradual strengthening is expected during that time. Vertical shear may decrease around the time that Mario stalls, and at that point the system is forecast to become a hurricane. Some weakening is anticipated by the end of the forecast period due to an increase in shear. The updated NHC intensity forecast is only slightly lower than the previous one based on the latest guidance. It should be noted that there is greater-than-normal uncertainty in this forecast since it is not known how much Mario and Lorena will interact in the coming days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.2N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.2N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.5N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.3N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 16.7N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 16.9N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 19.4N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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