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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-09-18 22:51:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 182051 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ASCAT data, including from the new ASCAT-C instrument, was very helpful in analyzing the location, size, and intensity of Mario this afternoon. The tropical storm has contracted substantially, and earlier microwave data suggested that it had developed a mid-level eye-like feature. Since that time, it appears that moderate easterly wind shear, associated at least in part with outflow with Mario's larger sibling (Lorena) to the east, has prevented the tropical storm from strengthening at a faster rate. The intensity is nonetheless increased to 55 kt, and this could be conservative given that the ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 50-55 kt. The track and intensity of Mario will depend largely on what happens with Lorena. If Lorena moves inland and weakens, Mario will likely be located within a very favorable environment for intensification. However, if Lorena stays offshore and strengthens (like shown in the latest NHC forecast), it will likely continue to negatively affect Mario for the next several days. Lorena's forecast may become more clear later tonight, but until then the Mario intensity forecast is, and will likely continue to be, highly uncertain. The NHC forecast is slightly above the intensity consensus, but is still well within the intensity model spread. Mario continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. Most of the global models forecast that Mario will meander generally northward to northwestward for the next couple of days toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. After that, if Lorena survives its brush with Mexico and strengthens near the Baja California peninsula, there is a chance that Mario could turn abruptly eastward as it interacts with the other cyclone. That said, most of the global models show no such interaction occuring, and instead show Mario continuing broadly northward through day 5. The NHC forecast follows the bulk of the guidance northward for now, but it should be noted that uncertainty in the track forecast is still high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 15.0N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 16.7N 112.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.5N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 18.6N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 23.5N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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