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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-09-19 04:53:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190253 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Mario's convection had mostly collapsed around the time of the previous advisory. However, a 1911 UTC GPM microwave pass indicated that the storm still had a tight circulation with a well-defined center, and a new burst of convection began around 2300 UTC. There is a wide range of intensity estimates with 45 kt from TAFB at the low end and 65 kt from the UW-CIMSS at the high end. Given this large spread, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt in the middle of the range. Mario's future still depends on Lorena. At the moment, the storm is moving northwestward, or 320/9 kt. The track models continue to show varying degrees of interaction between Mario and Lorena. On the one hand, the GFS and HWRF models show the smaller Mario becoming enveloped into Lorena's larger circulation, making a backwards-S track as it moves generally northward. On the other hand, since the ECMWF dissipates Lorena inland over Mexico, it allows Mario to move northward or northwestward unabated with not much wiggle in its track. Visible satellite images showed quite a bit of southwesterly flow feeding from near Mario toward Lorena, which leads me to believe that there will at least be some interaction between the two cyclones. Given that, the NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward a bit, but not as far to the east as some of the consensus aids or the HCCA model. Intensity-wise, it appears that Mario will get into a more favorable upper-level environment during the next 24-36 hours, which should foster some strengthening. Mario is forecast to become a hurricane in about 24 hours, and this scenario lies between the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA model. Weakening is likely to occur after 48 hours due to an increase in easterly shear, lower oceanic heat content, and possible interaction with Lorena. Because of this possible interaction, confidence in both the NHC track and intensity forecasts is lower than normal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.4N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.1N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 17.6N 112.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 18.2N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 20.2N 113.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 22.7N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 24.8N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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