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Tropical Storm Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2018-10-11 16:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 111448 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 14(36) X(36) X(36) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 36(36) 22(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 34 X 10(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 16(16) 12(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLIP NY 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 1 27(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) OCEAN CITY MD 34 2 45(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 46(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) WALLOPS CDA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 9 9(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) DANVILLE VA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 33 37(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) NORFOLK NAS 50 2 12(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NORFOLK VA 34 38 40(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) NORFOLK VA 50 2 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) OCEANA NAS VA 34 40 44(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) OCEANA NAS VA 50 2 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ELIZABETH CTY 34 64 20(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) ELIZABETH CTY 50 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 48 X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) RALEIGH NC 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 77 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) ROCKY MT NC 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE HATTERAS 34 40 7(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) FAYETTEVILLE 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) FAYETTEVILLE 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) NEW RIVER NC 34 43 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MOREHEAD CITY 34 48 X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SURF CITY NC 34 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) WILMINGTON NC 34 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) BALD HEAD ISL 34 50 X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COLUMBIA SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 34 70 X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) MYRTLE BEACH 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) GEORGETOWN SC 34 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AUGUSTA GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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