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Tropical Storm Milton Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-10-06 04:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 860 WTNT44 KNHC 060233 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Milton appears to be slowly organizing. The storm has a central dense overcast pattern with deep convection persisting near and to the south of the center. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 50 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 40 kt. Milton is a small storm at the moment, with its estimated tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 30 n mi from the center. The storm is moving slowly northeastward at 4 kt as it remains embedded in weak steering currents. However, a shortwave trough is expected to push southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This trough and a reinforcing one should cause Milton to turn eastward on Sunday, and move progressively faster to the east and then northeast across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida during the next 3 to 4 days. The guidance is in fair agreement, but there is some spread in both direction and timing. Overall, the models have trended slower this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. This prediction is near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the typically best-performing consensus aids. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 4 is around 150 miles. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact track. Milton will likely steadily strengthen during the next few days as it moves over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, remains in a moist air mass, and in a diffluent and low to moderate wind shear environment. The big question is how quickly and by how much will the storm intensify. There is a big spread in the intensity models, with the hurricane regional models notably above the global and statistical-dynamical models. The new intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one and in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN aids. It is hoped that the models will come into better agreement tomorrow after ingesting some of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations. Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of next week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. Hurricane Watches could be issued as early as late Sunday for portions of Florida. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 22.9N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 23.0N 94.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 23.0N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 23.1N 92.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 23.3N 90.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 23.9N 88.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 25.3N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 28.2N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 30.8N 76.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2024-10-06 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 060232 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 13(41) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 16(46) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 11(31) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 10(40) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 14(45) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 12(48) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 12(48) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) 16(61) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) 16(61) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 13(54) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 10(43) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 7(36) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 3(29) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 21(32) 2(34) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 39(50) 5(55) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 5(43) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 52(65) 6(71) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 5(40) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 54(63) 8(71) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 8(43) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 5(23) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 47(52) 9(61) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 7(34) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) 3(38) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 35(46) 3(49) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 2(29) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) 2(31) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 13(15) 7(22) X(22) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 1(17) X(17) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 12(31) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26) X(26) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Milton (AT4/AL142024)
2024-10-06 04:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MILTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 the center of Milton was located near 22.9, -95.1 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics