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Tropical Storm Milton Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-10-06 16:58:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 583 WTNT44 KNHC 061458 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Milton is strengthening. A large burst of convection is occurring in the northern semicircle of the storm, with lots of expanding outflow. The last fix from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed a pressure down to 991 mb with maximum 500m low-level winds of about 65 kt. These winds reduce down to the surface to about 55 kt, and this value will be the initial intensity. The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or 105/5 kt. Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The storm should then turn northeastward and accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula. As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the guidance trend continues. The Mexican government has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to intensify quickly. Given the track over the very deep warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days, rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of Mexico. The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a notable increase in shear. While some weakening is anticipated, the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area. Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton. 2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches could be issued later today or tonight. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential of moderate to major river flooding. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 22.4N 94.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 22.2N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 23.5N 88.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 24.7N 86.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 29.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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2024-10-06 16:58:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 14:58:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 14:58:15 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2024-10-06 16:56:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 061456 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 2(33) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) 3(40) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 1(35) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) 3(46) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 35(48) 2(50) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 38(51) 1(52) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 47(66) 2(68) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 2(34) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 47(66) 2(68) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 2(34) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 41(61) 3(64) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 2(28) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 33(52) 3(55) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 24(45) 1(46) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) 1(26) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 1(23) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 10(38) X(38) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 6(45) X(45) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 18(66) 1(67) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 15(33) X(33) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 23(55) 1(56) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26) 1(27) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 56(56) 24(80) 1(81) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 24(50) X(50) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 17(30) X(30) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 32(75) 1(76) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 31(47) X(47) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) X(27) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 30(57) X(57) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 1(31) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 12(28) X(28) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 13(39) X(39) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 1(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 4(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 3(40) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 19(34) X(34) X(34) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics