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Tropical Storm Milton Public Advisory Number 2
2024-10-05 23:15:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 052114 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 2...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Corrected references to a depression in discussion and hazards sections ...MILTON FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 95.5W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida on Sunday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 95.5 West. Milton is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow east-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight. A slightly faster eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml Rainfall: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Graphics
2024-10-05 22:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 20:52:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 21:23:12 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 26
2024-10-05 22:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 052048 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 Kirk continues to have a tight inner core, with deep convection wrapping around the center. The eye has continued to become more cloud filled, as shear increases over the system. The latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have held mostly steady with this cycle, and the initial intensity is held at 105 kt. Kirk continues to move northward and increase forward speed with an estimated motion of (005/17 kt) between a trough located over the west-central Atlantic and a subtropical ridge in the east Atlantic. Model track guidance remains tightly clustered, although there has been a slight shift southward as the system transitions and becomes post-tropical. The NHC forecast track shows the center of Kirk passing just to the north of the Azores on Monday as an extratropical cyclone, and then moving across the northeastern Atlantic and over western Europe by the middle of next week. The official NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, with a slight nudge southward towards the end of the period following the consensus model trends. Wind shear has started to increase over Kirk this afternoon, but the inner core has been able to remain intact. However, the environment will only continue to become more hostile as wind shear continues to increase, with drier mid-level air, and cooler sea surface temperatures. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast through early next week. The system should lose tropical characteristics and transition to a strong extratropical cyclone around 60 h. The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the previous one in the near term, with a slightly faster rate of weakening in agreement with the latest HCCA and simple consensus aids. Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from the hurricane. These large swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles beginning later today, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 29.6N 50.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 32.1N 49.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 35.8N 47.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 39.2N 42.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 43.5N 29.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1800Z 44.3N 19.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z 47.7N .5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z 55.8N 14.9E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics