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Tropical Storm NORA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-10-10 04:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100234 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015 Deep convection has increased a little since the last advisory, with the center located on the southeastern edge of the convective mass due to light/moderate southeasterly shear over the cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, marking the formation of Tropical Storm Nora, the 14th tropical storm of the eastern North Pacific season. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued steady strengthening for the next 72 hours, with the cyclone moving over SSTs at or above 29C during that period and light shear. By days 4 and 5 the SHIPS model and global model fields show the shear increasing, which should result in weakening. The new NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and is close to or a little above the SHIPS model through the period. The initial motion estimate is 275/14, as Nora is being steered quickly westward by a subtropical ridge to the north. A gradual decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next 36 hours as the ridge slowly weakens, and Nora should then turn west- northwestward as a weakness develops around 145W. Nora is then forecast to recurve between a deep-layer trough over the north- central Pacific and a strengthening ridge to the southeast by the end of the period. The track model guidance is in overall good agreement on this scenario, and the new NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through the period. The new official forecast is a little north of the previous one through 48 hours, and then is a little to the left, showing a more gradual recurvature following the latest trend in the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 11.3N 135.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 11.6N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 11.8N 139.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 11.9N 141.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 12.3N 143.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 13.0N 145.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 15.0N 145.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 18.5N 142.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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