je.st
news
Tropical Storm NORA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-10-10 22:53:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 102053 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 Nora is small tropical cyclone with an irregular central dense overcast and some banding features especially northwest of the center. Microwave data show that the inner core has improved in organization, with a mostly closed ring noted in the 37 GHz channel. With the increasing inner core structure, the initial wind speed is raised to 45 kt, at the higher end of the estimates near the Dvorak value from TAFB. The initial 34-kt wind radii were adjusted inward based on an ASCAT-A pass from 1826Z. Over the next couple of days, the environment near the storm is expected to generally be favorable for strengthening, with very warm waters and low shear anticipated. However, some dry air aloft is expected to temper the intensification, and only a gradual increase in wind speed is expected at this time. Still, with the inner core getting better organized, a faster rate of intensification is possible, with the SHIPS-RI index showing a 25 percent chance of a 30-kt change over the next 24 hours. The intensity forecast will remain close to the previous one in the first 48 hours, above most of the guidance and closest to the GFDL and Florida State Superensemble models. Global models are increasing the wind shear near Nora quite a bit in a few days and keeping it high for the remainder of the period. This will likely cause significant weakening, and the NHC prediction is decreased a little bit at long range, and is below the model consensus. Nora continues moving westward at roughly 12 kt. There has been no change to the synoptic pattern with a ridge expected to gradually weaken to the north of the tropical cyclone over the next couple of days. This pattern should result in Nora decelerating during that time, while generally moving a little north of west. Thereafter, the storm is expected to encounter a weakness in the ridge while a mid-latitude trough digs north of Hawaii. These features should turn Nora to the north and northeast, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. Model guidance has shifted a bit to the south and west on this model cycle, in better agreement overall on a later northward turn. The NHC forecast is shifted westward through 96 hours to come into better agreement with the consensus-based guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 11.8N 138.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 11.9N 140.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 12.0N 141.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 12.1N 143.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 12.3N 144.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 13.8N 146.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 16.0N 145.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 18.0N 144.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake/Brennan
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||