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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-09-30 22:40:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 302039 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 A couple of microwave passes that arrived shortly after the release of the previous advisory showed that Narda had become better organized this morning. The imagery revealed well-defined banding and a mid-level eye feature that was located just offshore the coast of mainland Mexico. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 and 55 kt, respectively. Recent ASCAT data supported an intensity on the lower end of this range, therefore the advisory wind speed has been set at 45 kt. A 10-minute average wind of 32 kt with a gust to 43 kt was reported at Mazatlan late this morning as the center of Narda passed nearby. Since the center is so close to the coast, little additional strengthening is expected. By late tonight or early Tuesday, Narda is likely to move just inland along the coast and weakening should begin by that time. The system is forecast to become a remnant low within a couple of days and dissipate over northwestern Mexico shortly thereafter. Weakening and dissipation could occur much sooner if Narda moves to the right of the current NHC forecast track. Narda continues to move quickly northwestward or 325/14 kt, around the southwestern periphery of a large mid-level anticyclone. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning as Narda should continue heading northwestward along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico. The track guidance is in somewhat better agreement this cycle, and the NHC forecast is in best agreement with the 1200 UTC ECMWF model, and is essentially an update of the previous forecast. The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 24.0N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 25.4N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 26.9N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/0600Z 28.2N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/1800Z 29.4N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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