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Tropical Storm Nestor Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-10-19 10:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190838 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nestor Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Nestor is rapidly losing the few tropical characteristics that it once had. The cloud pattern consists of a large circulation of low clouds with a comma-shape convective band well to the east of the circulation. This band is already over a large portion of the Florida peninsula. The center of the system or the area of minimum pressure could be anywhere within this gyre, and the precise location is uncertain. Surrounding data and ASCAT measurements suggest that the winds have decreased to 45 kt. All indications are that no significant strengthening is anticipated before the broad circulation moves inland later today, and guidance suggests that Nestor will lose its tropical characteristics while moving across the southeastern United States. The weaker extratropical cyclone is expected to dissipate or merge with a cold front in about 4 days or sooner. Since the center is not well defined, the initial motion is highly uncertain. It appears that cyclone has slowed down but it should resume a motion toward northeast or 045 degrees at about 15 kt. Most of the track models are in good agreement that this general motion should continue, and the broad circulation will move inland over the Florida Panhandle later today and across portions of Georgia and the Carolinas later tonight and Sunday. Given the non-tropical appearance of Nestor, dangerous storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will occur along a large portion of the Florida Gulf Coast well east of the track of Nestor's center today. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are spreading across portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center. 3. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern United States into Sunday morning. 4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 29.0N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 30.7N 84.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 33.5N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 20/1800Z 36.0N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0600Z 37.0N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0600Z 37.5N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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