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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-13 10:47:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 130847 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0900 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS * ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO FREEPORT TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA...INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY * BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO SABINE PASS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 96.6W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 96.6W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 96.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.3N 96.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.2N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.6N 95.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.1N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.5N 91.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 96.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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