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Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-09-12 16:58:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 121457 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 6(17) 2(19) 1(20) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 2(17) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) 3(21) 2(23) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) 2(18) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 3(21) 1(22) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 3(21) 1(22) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 12(37) 1(38) 1(39) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) 1(11) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31) 2(33) 1(34) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 13(37) 1(38) 1(39) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 20(40) 5(45) 1(46) 1(47) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) 2(26) 1(27) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 27(42) 10(52) 1(53) X(53) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 27(47) 8(55) X(55) 1(56) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) X(16) 1(17) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 11(11) 17(28) 6(34) 1(35) X(35) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 5( 5) 46(51) 11(62) 2(64) X(64) 1(65) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) 1(26) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 49(50) 20(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 1(71) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) LA PESCA MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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