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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-10-06 10:53:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060853 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Deep convection has persisted overnight in association with former Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, forming a well-defined central dense overcast over the center. Additionally, a 0448 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed a compact, circular wind field with at least 35-40 kt in the eastern semicircle of the system. Thus, the initial intensity has been raised to 40 kt, and the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Norbert. Norbert is presently moving northwestward at 6 kt, steered by a weakening mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The storm is expected to slow down later today as the steering currents collapse, and Norbert will likely meander offshore for several days before resuming a slow west-northwestward motion late in the forecast period. There remains above average spread in the track guidance given the weak steering flow, and the NHC track forecast lies fairly close to the consensus aids. Norbert is a compact storm over very warm waters, and the limited deep-layer shear it is experiencing should allow for steady strengthening over the next couple of days. The global guidance continues to struggle with this small storm, so the latest NHC intensity forecast trends well above the consensus aids and closer to the statistical-dynamical SHIPS guidance. Given the very favorable environmental conditions, it is certainly possible that Norbert could intensify even more than forecast. By day 3 and beyond, vertical wind shear is expected to increase, which could cause the storm's intensity to level off through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 13.7N 106.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 14.0N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 14.1N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 14.3N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 14.9N 107.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 15.5N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart
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