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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-10-06 16:43:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061443 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 The overall appearance of Norbert has changed little since early this morning, with a mass of deep convection pulsating over the low-level center. A blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at 40 kt. The environment appears conducive for Norbert to strengthen over warm waters with low vertical wind shear. Despite this, most of the global and hi-res dynamical models do not strengthen Norbert, and in fact the HWRF and HMON both weaken the system over the next couple of days. Therefore, the consensus aids also do not indicate that the system will intensify. On the other end of the spectrum, the SHIPS guidance favors strengthening over the next couple of days and indicates that Norbert will be nearing hurricane strength within a few days. The latest NHC forecast remains above the consensus aids but below the SHIPS guidance, suggesting some gradual strengthening over the next 48 h, prior to the increase in shear. Norbert continues to move northwestward at 6 kt, steered by a weakening mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The steering currents are forecast to collapse by tonight, and the cyclone is expected to meander through the middle of the week. By late this week, a weak mid-level ridge should build north of the cyclone which would result in a slow west-northwestward motion. Due to the weak steering flow, there is a larger than normal spread in the track guidance. The latest NHC forecast remains close to the consensus aids, and is slightly faster then the previous forecast at days 3-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.2N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 14.4N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 14.5N 106.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 14.7N 106.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 14.8N 106.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 15.0N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 15.2N 107.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 15.7N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 16.1N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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