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Tropical Storm Norman Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-08-29 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 548 WTPZ41 KNHC 290236 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 900 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 The tropical cyclone has become significantly better organized over the past several hours. A band of very cold-topped convection now spirals well over halfway around the circulation. Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are up to 3.0, which corresponds to a current intensity of 45 kt. On this basis the system is being upgraded to a tropical storm, making Norman the fourteenth named tropical cyclone of this busy eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Since Norman will continue to move over warm waters and through an environment of low vertical shear and moist mid-level air, continued strengthening is likely. In fact, the various Rapid Intensification (RI) Indices show high probabilities of RI. Therefore the official forecast shows intensity changes of 30 and 35 kt per day from 0-24 hours and 24-48 hours respectively. This is also close to the simple intensity consensus but below the HFIP Corrected Consensus and the latest HWRF model run. The most recent geostationary and microwave satellite center fixes indicate that Norman is located a little south and southwest of the previous track, but the initial motion estimate remains about the same as before, 290/9 kt. The cyclone is moving along the southern periphery of a large mid-level ridge which is expanding westward. This should cause the system to turn toward the west very soon. Later in the period, the ridge builds a little to the southwest and this will likely cause Norman to turn toward the west-southwest. The official track forecast is a little south of the previous one, but close to the latest simple and corrected model consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 17.5N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 17.9N 115.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 18.2N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 18.3N 118.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 18.1N 120.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 17.2N 124.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 16.0N 128.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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