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Tropical Storm Norman Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-08-29 16:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 154 WTPZ41 KNHC 291434 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 The cloud pattern has continued to improved in organization, and SSMIS data at 1400 UTC indicate that an inner core is beginning to form. The area of convection is large with a well defined cyclonically curved band wrapping around the system, while the upper-level outflow is expanding westward. Based on objective and subjective T-numbers, the initial intensity has been set at 55 kt. The environment of low shear and warm waters is ideal for Norman to intensify, and in fact, the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are quite high. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Norman to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane in a day or so. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 9 kt. The hurricane is ready to start moving more westward or even on a west-southwestward track as the nose of the ridge to the north begins to expand westward and amplify. Most of the models captured the building of the ridge, and unanimously forecast the cyclone to move west-southwestward for the next 2 to 4 days. The confidence is the forecast during the first 3 to 4 days is high since track models are really clustered. The new NHC forecast is not too different from the previous one, and it lies between the corrected consensus HCCA and the multimodel aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 17.8N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 17.9N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 18.1N 118.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 17.9N 119.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 17.5N 121.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 16.2N 124.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 134.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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